BJP does caste math, Trinamool deploys big guns in Mamata-Suvendu battle royale
Telegraph | 30 March 2026
The BJP mapping out a detailed caste equation, 46,000-plus voters removed from the electoral rolls, an arithmetic edge for the Opposition in the last election and the individual charisma of the two lead protagonists – chief minister Mamata Banerjee and chief challenger Suvendu Adhikari – make Bhabanipur the battle royale in the Bengal Assembly election 2026.
Five summers ago, Adhikari, then barely months old in the BJP, carried out a heavily polarised campaign in his constituency, Nandigram, against Mamata. He won by a slim margin of 1,956 votes.
Between then and now, Adhikari has emerged as the face of the BJP against Mamata and the Trinamool.
This year he has walked into the chief minister’s lair – keeping one foot in his home turf of Nandigram – banking on the community arithmetic that defines Bhabanipur, Mamata’s backyard.
From a village home to potters, weavers and farmers in the 16th century, Bhabanipur of today is a mix of Bengalis, Marwaris, Gujaratis, Sikhs, Jains and a sizeable Muslim population.
The 1,59,201 electors in Bhabanipur (when the final rolls were published by the commission) comprise 42 per cent Bengali Hindus, 34 per cent non-Bengali Hindus and roughly 24 per cent Muslims.
When the draft rolls were published on December 16 around 44,000 names were deleted in the first round. The final rolls released on February 28 revealed a further deletion of 2,342 voters and addition of merely 18 new voters.
The number of deleted voters is roughly 11,000 less than the over 58,000-vote margin secured by Mamata in the 2021 bypoll. Another 14,154 voters have been marked under adjudication.
The Trinamool has claimed the commission has targeted Muslim voters in the constituency.
“More than 56 per cent of the Muslim voters have been marked under adjudication,” said a Trinamool insider. “Despite all the tricks the BJP and the commission has deployed, Didi will win from Bhabanipur and become chief minister again.”
The BJP has set its eyes on a section of the Bengali-speaking Hindus and non-Bengali Hindus, especially traders from Gujarat and Rajasthan’s Marwar, traditionally soft towards the saffron party.
For over a year the BJP carried out a survey in Bengal’s most high-profile constituency to break down the caste and community arithmetic.
The highest block in the caste pie, BJP sources, was the Kayashthas at around 26.2 per cent, followed by the Muslims at 24.5 per cent. Brahmins, Mamata’s fellow caste members, account for just 7.6 per cent of the electors. Migrants from nearby states make up for 14.9 per cent, while Marwaris are around 10.4 per cent.
BJP caste math
The BJP sniffs a chance at Suvendu repeating his 2021 feat and this time in Mamata’s humble homeground.
“We have a fair idea where the Bengali-speaking voters are dominant, the areas where Muslims have the edge and where the non-Bengali traders hold the sway,” said a BJP source. “We have tweaked the campaign strategy for each of these zones accordingly.” ‘
There is another arithmetic that would give Mamata and the Trinamool reason to worry about Bhabanipur.
In the 2021 by-election for the Bhabanipur Assembly seat, Mamata had won with a handsome margin of 58,832 votes. Less than three years later, the Trinamool’s lead margin in the Bhabanipur Assembly segment of the Kolkata South Lok Sabha seat came down to 8,297 votes.
On February 28, 2025, the day Mamata started to take on the Election Commission on duplicate voters in electoral rolls, she held a special meeting with eight Kolkata Municipal Corporation councillors.
Bhabanipur is home to Mamata, the party’s national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee as well as a number of Trinamool leaders.