Trinamool or BJP? Battle on in 59 seats that hold key to Phase 1 of Bengal Assembly election
Telegraph | 23 April 2026
Fifty-nine seats across four districts — accounting for nearly 39 per cent of the 152 constituencies that will vote in the first phase of the Assembly elections on Thursday — could prove decisive in determining which party gains early momentum in the race to win Bengal.
In north Bengal, whose 54 seats also go to polls on Thursday, the BJP is believed to hold the edge. In Birbhum and West Burdwan, the battle seems slanted towards the ruling Trinamool, given its organisational strength and past record.
But in Murshidabad, Bankura, Purulia and East Midnapore, the fight is tooth and nail.
Murshidabad: Not a bipolar contest
Murshidabad, which has 22 Assembly seats, is probably the only district in Bengal where the contest is not bipolar. Here, the Congress and the CPM still retain strong organisational presence and have a decent electoral track record, even though the past decade has been marked largely by the BJP’s rise.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Trinamool led in 14 of these 22 seats, the Congress in four, the BJP in three and the CPM in one. The vote shares of these parties was at 39.7 per cent, 23.4 per cent, 22.4 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the Trinamool won 20 seats and the BJP won two in Murshidabad. The TMC secured 54.5 per cent of the vote share, followed by the BJP with 23.1 per cent, the Congress with 14.2 per cent and the CPM with 4.8 per cent.
In 2016, the Congress and the CPM had a seat-sharing alliance.
Murshidabad, with around 66 per cent of its population belonging to the minority community, has seen seats like Berhampore going to the BJP. In contrast to the entire district, Berhampore has 25 per cent Muslim population. The Murshidabad seat, which has 42.9 per cent Muslim population, went to the BJP in 2021. In Burwan, BJP lost out to the TMC with a thin margin of around 2,000 votes.
This election, Congress veteran Adhir Chowdhury is contesting from Berhampore, which may upset the applecart for the BJP.
Then there is Humayun Kabir who, after hopping parties, has opened his own political party and is contesting Naoda and Rejinagar in the district, which may upset typical calculations.
Then there are seats like Samserganj, Lalgola, and Hariharpara, where the Congress came second in 2021, amid the BJP’s rise.
Bhagabangola, Jalangi, and Domkal are constituencies where the CPM came second in 2021.
The special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has complicated the equation. Post the SIR, over 60 lakh names were under adjudication in Bengal of which Murshidabad accounted for 11 lakh cases – around 20 per cent of the 55 lakh voters in the district.
According to the revised electoral rolls, 7.48 lakh names have been deleted from the district, the highest in Bengal.
So who cuts whose votes? How does the SIR play out in the land of the nawabs? There’s no clear answer as politics is also about chemistry – not just mathematics.
Bankura: Too close to call
South Bengal’s Bankura, the land of terracotta temples, has 12 Assembly seats and in the previous two polls it has been neck and neck.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the TMC and the BJP both led in six Assembly seats each. The saffron party secured 44.4 per cent vote share and the TMC received 43.9 per cent.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the BJP won eight seats and the TMC won four seats in Bankura. The BJP secured 44.5 per cent vote share and the TMC managed 43.5 per cent.
Bankura’s narrative has been of being marginalised in Bengal politics. Agrarian distress, lack of infrastructure development, proper health care and education have been constant issues over the last two decades or more.
Purulia: Will it see-saw again?
In the dry landscape of Purulia, a district known for water scarcity and lack of industries, the question in the season of palash is whether the lotus will bloom or will it be the TMC’s two flowers and leaves of grass.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the TMC led in six of the nine Assembly seats in Purulia and the BJP led in three. Mamata Banerjee’s party secured 40.6 per cent vote share and the BJP received 40 per cent.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the electoral arithmetic was the opposite. The BJP won six seats and the TMC won three seats. The BJP secured 38 per cent vote share and the TMC managed 38.5 per cent.
East Midnapore: Prestige battle
In leader of Opposition of the outgoing Assembly Suvendu Adhikari’s fiefdom East Midnapore, the contest is squarely between the Adhikari family and the TMC’s Banerjees (Mamata and Abhishek).
On March 25, Abhishek told party workers: “Nandigram is my responsibility. All of you take responsibility for the coming 25 days. For the next five years I will be responsible for Nandigram.”
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP led in 15 of the 16 Assembly segments in East Midnapore. The TMC led only in one. The saffron party’s vote share was 49.1 per cent, the TMC’s was 45. 4 per cent.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the TMC won nine seats while the BJP won seven seats, including Suvendu’s win over Mamata at Nandigram.
The vote share of both the parties stood at 46.9 per cent.