Bengal exit polls 2026 predictions: Narrow win for BJP in state, second spot for ruling TMC
Telegraph | 29 April 2026
Peoples Pulse exit poll has projected a clean sweep for the ruling Trinamool Congress in the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections with 177-187 seats, restricting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to 95-110 seats, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3.
P Matrize pollster has given an edge to the BJP with 146-161 seats and predicted a second spot for the ruling TMC with 120-140 constituencies in its kitty.
JVC projected BJP majority with 138–159 seats, TMC at 131–152.
P-Marq predicted 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 to the TMC.
Poll Diary estimates place the BJP in a strong position with 142–171 seats, while the TMC is projected at 99–127.
The NDTV-Axis My India exit poll data for West Bengal will be released on Thursday.
A voter turnout of 89.99 per cent was recorded in Bengal till 5 pm on Wednesday as per ECI data. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee said that she has “never seen this type of democracy” as she said that no state police was allowed at any booth and CRPF has “captured” it all.
The Election Commission has deployed 2,321 companies of central forces across seven districts, with Kolkata receiving the highest deployment of 273 companies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi heaped praise on the voter turnout seen in Bengal during the first phase and the percentage being recorded as voting for the final phase continues.
"Voting for the second phase is underway in Bengal, and reports indicate a massive turnout, with people stepping out in large numbers just like in the first phase. Images of long queues at polling stations are flooding social media, reflecting the enthusiasm of the people to exercise their democratic right," he said.
The first phase of the Bengal election was held on Thursday and, on paper, a record 92.8 per cent voter turnout was recorded.
The BJP has asserted that it is on course to unseat chief minister Mamata Banerjee, with home minister Amit Shah claiming the party could win over 110 of the 152 seats that went to polls in the first phase and eventually secure a majority.
Mamata, on the other hand, has maintained that early voting trends suggest the Trinamool Congress remains firmly in the lead.
In 2021, most exit polls pointed to a tight contest between the TMC and the BJP. The aggregated “poll of polls” suggested Mamata Banerjee’s party would win around 156 of the 292 seats, while the BJP was projected to secure a strong 121 seats, indicating a closely fought race.
The exit poll results, which are usually very accurate, told a very different story for West Bengal. The TMC swept the elections with a commanding 215 seats, far exceeding predictions, while the BJP managed 77 seats, emerging as the principal opposition for the first time in the state assembly.
The sharp gap between projections and results in 2021 continues to cast a shadow over exit polls, even as voters and political parties await fresh numbers for 2026.
Large-scale deletions in south Bengal districts have kept the issue politically volatile — over 12.6 lakh names in North 24 Parganas, 10.91 lakh in South 24 Parganas and nearly 6.97 lakh in Kolkata alone.
In at least 25 constituencies, the number of deleted names is higher than the previous victory margin. At the same time, 1,468 people whose names were restored following SIR-linked tribunal orders will be able to vote on Wednesday.
While the TMC has called it targeted disenfranchisement of minorities, migrants and poor Bengali-speaking voters, the BJP has defended the exercise as necessary to remove bogus voters and infiltrators.
Among other key constituencies are Kolkata Port, where Firhad Hakim is in the fray, besides Bhatpara, Jagatdal, Barrackpore, Bangaon, Dum Dum, Sandeshkhali, Ranaghat Uttar and Dakshin, Rashbehari, Jadavpur and Ballygunge.
The West Bengal Assembly election 2026 is being held in two phases. Voting for the first phase took place on April 23, and the second phase is scheduled for April 29. The results will be declared on May 4.