Kolkata: Weather experts have raised concerns about potential heatwave conditions in Kolkata and the rest of Bengal from mid-March through April, along with highly humid summer days in May, and their worries have been amplified by the concurrent Lok Sabha election process. Experts from IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) have issued warnings, drawing attention to the tragic incident during last April’s Bhushan award ceremony in Navi Mumbai, where 13 attendees perished due to extreme heat.
Last year was one of the warmest on record, surpassing the average temperature recorded from 1850-1900 by 1.5°C and the record set in 2016 by 0.2°C.The surge in temperature has been attributed to the El Nino effect, which is anticipated to induce heatwave conditions this summer as it gradually diminishes by May.
Roxy Mathew Koll from IITM in Pune presented a detailed study at Anil Agarwal Dialogue, an annual event organised by New Delhi-based environmental think tank Centre for Science and Environment, predicting heatwave conditions starting as early as March and extending through May. During this period, the El Nino effect is expected to wane, giving way to the La Nina effect.
“While El Nino involves hot marine streams that warm the environment, La Nina, theoretically, introduces a cooling effect with cold streams. However, the overall impact does not significantly counteract the heating effect of El Nino,” Koll said.
Former director general of IMD K J Ramesh, in his talk on “Heat Waves: Prediction and Current Trends”, said higher humidity in coastal regions exacerbates the morbidity factor associated with heatwaves. He stressed the need for precautionary measures ahead of the LS election campaign and voting process.
IITM Pune has issued a comprehensive advisory urging the Election Commission and local authorities to make necessary preparations. “All campaign activities and rallies should be planned with consideration for heat impact. The IMD will disseminate heatwave forecasts. Measures such as awareness campaigns, shaded waiting areas, hydration stations, cooling centres, healthcare facilities, flexible-attire guidelines, transportation arrangements and outreach to vulnerable communities must be prioritized,” Ramesh said.
Koll also suggested considering extended voting hours in areas predicted to experience heatwaves.