From Left’s 1.5% to TMC’s 52%, parties’ lows tell tale of West Bengal
Times of India | 25 November 2024
Trinamool supporters celebrate Sanat Dey’s victory in Naihati KOLKATA: The numbers behind the Bengal bypoll results in six assembly constituencies, declared Saturday, indicate opposition parties face an uphill task in loosening Trinamool’s grip over the state.
Trinamool has secured more than half the votes in each seat and more than three-fourths of the polled votes in two; BJP has fared decently in some seats, getting more than a third of the votes, but in at least one seat, its vote share has dipped below 10%; Left parties and Congress stare at complete irrelevance, with the vote-share of Left — which had a better show among the two — varying between a low of 1.5% to a high of 10.2%. Left and Congress candidates, in fact, had to forfeit their deposits in all six seats, a requirement when a candidate gets fewer than one-sixth of the total votes polled.
The scale of Trinamool’s victory is evident in that it polled an average of 62.5% votes; closest contender BJP polled an average of 25.4%, with BJP’s Haroa candidate losing his deposit.
Bypolls are never a real indicator of the broader poll mood, because the outcome tends to back the party in office. But, importantly, these bypolls, on Nov 13, were held a little over three months since the Aug 9 RG Kar rape-and-murder.
BJP experienced a severe reversal in Alipurduar’s Madarihat, where its loss in vote-share largely corresponded with the rise in Trinamool vote-share. The tea belt constituency, reserved for Scheduled Tribes, had voted for Left constituent RSP since 1969, and for BJP since 2016.
In Madarihat, BJP’s vote-share decreased from 54.3% in 2021 to 34.8% in 2024. Of the 19.5% loss BJP suffered in the seat, Trinamool gained 17.5%. Congress, which did not field a candidate in 2021, managed to get 2% of votes polled. Left Front also lost 2% of the votes in the constituency.
The Madarihat loss has already led to infighting among BJP. Party leaders felt former junior Union minister John Barla’s hobnobbing with Trinamool leaders, weeks before the poll, projected an optics that the party failed to counter. Alipurduar MP and former Madarihat MLA Manoj Tigga said the BJP central leadership was keeping an eye on Barla’s statements. “They know whose interests Barla is serving,” Tigga said. Barla, instead, has squarely blamed the Bengal BJP leadership.
But this is just one of BJP’s worries. Although it put up a relatively decent performance in three assembly segments — Naihati, Midnapore and Taldangra — its vote-share decreased by 29% to 16.2% in the bypoll in Cooch Behar’s Sitai. “There is a need for the party to introspect. It is true our workers performed amid threats and intimidation, but we have to analyse our mistakes,” said Samik Bhattacharya, Bengal BJP spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP. “If the polls were indeed free and fair, we have to believe that RG Kar has zero impact,” Bhattacharya said.
Left Front has not yet issued any statement on the poll outcome.
Congress, which had to be satisfied with less than 4.5% of the votes in each constituency, felt the religious binary played out by BJP had polarised voters. “The more BJP tries to polarise voters, the more advantageous it is for Trinamool. The political culture in the state has gone for a toss,” said Pradesh Congress president Subhankar Sarkar. “We wanted to test our strength by fighting it alone this time. Whether Congress will ally with CPM in the future is a decision to be taken by leaders in Delhi. However, there is nothing impossible in politics,” said Congress spokesperson Soumya Aich Roy.
Indian Secular Front (ISF), which contested from Haroa, also suffered a setback with its vote-share decreasing by 9.2% in 2024 from 21.7% in 2021. “There is a need for introspection and to increase our mass contact further. Trinamool and BJP were able to polarise votes and create a binary, which overshadowed issues like health, education and industry,” said an ISF leader.