A day after India responded with a slew of measures including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), reducing strength in consulates and stopping all trade, Pakistan displayed bravado. A statement issued after their National Security Council meeting termed India’s actions as ‘unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible, and devoid of legal merit.’ It added, “Any attempt to stop or divert Pakistan’s water will be responded to with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.” It threatened to bomb dams which stop flows of water.
This fake bravado has no meaning as any such action will only flood Pakistan and Indian retaliation could be severe. There are already reports of floods in POK with increased release of water in the Jhelum. With the treaty off, India has no obligation to share information on release of water. Reducing flow of water will have a major impact and Pakistan is aware. Pakistan’s deputy PM and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar termed terrorists involved in the Pahalgam attack as ‘freedom fighters,’ and vowed to strike back at any Indian action.
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Their defence minister, Khawaja Asif, admitted in a TV interview that Pakistan had been backing, supporting, training, and funding terrorists, adding it was doing so for the West including the US. Would anyone believe things to be any different today? The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the LeT, a known Pakistani organization, took responsibility for the attack. In just two days Pakistan’s stance began to change. The army chief, who was displaying bravado and claiming Kashmir is their jugular vein, was the first to rush his family to the safety of London. The TRF backtracked from claiming responsibility, releasing a statement stating, “TRF unequivocally denies any involvement in the Pahalgam incident. Any attribution of this act to TRF is false and hasty.”
It added, “After an internal audit, we have reason to believe it was the result of a coordinated cyber intrusion,” implying its network was hacked. Even Shehbaz Sharief began singing a different tune. Addressing the passing-out parade at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul, Sharief said, “Continuing with its role as a responsible country, Pakistan is open to participating in any neutral, transparent and credible investigation.” He subsequently added the standard rhetoric of defending Pakistan and its interests. The speech for the occasion, being a military passing out parade, would have been approved by Asim Munir, sending the message that the top Pakistan leadership does not seek conflict. A similar comment came from their defence minister.
Why this change of heart? Firstly, it would have seen the support received by India from nations across the globe, including Pakistan’s erstwhile allies from West Asia. Compare this with the number of nations which offered condolences after the Jaffar train hijack in Baluchistan. After the Hamas attack on Israel in October last year, the world has begun to abhor terrorist strikes, knowing they could lead to war. Hence claims of ‘no involvement’ by Pakistan and it being a ’false flag operation’ have few takers. A handful of nations have offered to mediate, none seriously. No country has criticized India for suspending the IWT. Secondly, the timing of the incident was a strategic error. PM Modi was visiting Jeddah and was in discussions with the Crown Prince, Muhammad Bin Salman. His cutting short the visit added to Saudi anger against Islamabad.
For the first time the joint statement mentioned cross-border terrorism. It stated, “They condemned cross-border terrorism, and called on all States to reject the use of terrorism against other countries.” The hint was evident. Thirdly, Pakistan is banking on China for support. Beijing would have sanctioned the operation as it is beneficial to them, with India’s security concerns shifting from the North to the West. However, China has not commented on Indian decisions including on the IWT, though it backed Pakistan’s call for a “fair and timely investigation.” Officially China does not want anything to come in the way of holding the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit this year, where PM Modi is expected to attend. The fourth is Pakistan’s sinking economy.
It cannot sustain a major conflict. There would be no funding from West Asia, as before, nor will there be free oil to fight a war. India has clipped Pakistan’s diplomatic power. Pakistan is also aware that its nuclear blackmail has little value. Fifth is the fear that India would again push Pakistan into FATF’s (Financial Action Task Force) blacklist, preventing it from obtaining global funding. With requisite proof available and India’s global standing, the risk of Pakistan being censured is high. Sixthly, the support which Asim Munir thought he would obtain from within the country, by uniting people against the Indian threat, does not seem to have worked.
The common Pakistani fears that the IWT decision would push the nation to the brink of disaster, especially as it already faces immense water and food shortages. The army continues to be hated for acting against Imran Khan. Pakistan is aware that it can never carry out its threat of striking at India’s dams in J and K nor compel India to change its mind on the treaty. Complaining to the World Bank would be of no benefit, as India could refuse to cooperate. Seventhly, with tensions high, Pakistan has been compelled to shift forces from Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to the LoC. This opens doors for freedom fighters there to exploit shortfalls in deployment.
Attacks are already on the rise. It would only get worse. Finally, Pakistan had hoped that targeting only Hindus could lead to religious riots within India, impacting internal instability, degrading the global standing of India and giving them the opportunity to term the current dispensation as anti-Muslim and pro-Hindutva. That failed. The nation stood together. For the first time since the revocation of article 370, Kashmir shut down for a day, displaying solidarity with the victims of Pahalgam. Ongoing anti-Pakistan protests across the valley, especially after Friday prayers, conveyed the message that Pakistan’s game of igniting Kashmiris has failed.
Pakistan is presently hoping against hope that someone will broker peace. They fail to comprehend that India is in no mood to relent. If it bends, New Delhi would send a signal of weakness thereby opening doors to further strikes. It has to act and Pakistan will pay the price.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)