Rs 30,000 crore windfall for Bengal likely after GST rate revision: Study
Times of India | 5 September 2025
Kolkata: Bengal may gain close to Rs 30,000 crore following the rationalisation of goods and services tax (GST) rates, according to a study by State Bank of India's (SBI) research wing.
This would make Bengal the fourth-highest gainer after Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. UP would stand to gain Rs 74,287 crore, Bihar Rs 41,651 crore and MP Rs 32,500 crore.
Countrywide total GST collection in 2025-26 (FY26) was estimated at Rs 20 lakh crore, while for Bengal, that number was projected at Rs 74,287 crore, significantly up from Rs 41,000 crore in FY24 and Rs 44,000 crore in FY25.
According to estimates made in the SBI study, states will remain net gainers from GST collections even after rate rationalisation.
"This is because of the unique revenue-sharing architecture of the tax. First, GST is shared equally between Centre and states, with each receiving 50% of collections. Second, under the mechanism of tax devolution, 41% of the Centre's share flows back to states," the study said.
"Our projections for FY26 indicate that states remain net gainers even after post-GST rate rationalisation. States are expected to receive at least Rs 10 lakh crore in SGST plus Rs 4.1 lakh crore through devolution.
The gains accrue even when we don't take the additional consumption boost due to rate rationalisation into account. When included, the gains are even higher," according to the study.
The study cited evidence from earlier rounds of GST rate changes, such as the changes in July 2018 and Oct 2019, when rate rationalisation did not necessarily weaken revenue collections. The evidence pointed to a temporary adjustment phase followed by stronger inflows, the study stated.
"While an immediate reduction in rates can cause a short term dip of around 3-4% month-on-month, revenues typically rebound with sustained growth of 5-6%," said the study.