West Bengal 2026: Owaisi-Kabir alliance sparks ‘vote split’ fears akin to Bihar
The Statesman | 24 March 2026
Asaduddin Owaisi on Sunday announced an alliance between his party, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) for the upcoming West Bengal assembly elections, reigniting political debate over whether such alliances fragment Opposition votes, potentially benefiting the BJP in the state.
The two leaders are expected to outline their electoral strategy in Kolkata later this week.
Kabir, a former minister in the Trinamool Congress government, had earlier drawn attention with his controversial proposal to build a mosque in Murshidabad modeled on the Babri Masjid. The proposal led to tensions within the TMC and remains a key talking point.
Making the announcement, Owaisi targeted his rivals saying: “We want to strengthen the AIMIM and ensure that our candidates in every corner of the country succeed and raise the voice of the poor and oppressed in the assembly. In West Bengal, 5 lakh backward category certificates have been cancelled, majority of which belong to Muslims. There are many stories of oppression as well. They secure votes in the name of secularism but when the Majlis advocates for share and representation, they don’t like it”
Observers say there are many ways to look at this alliance. While one of them may be AIMIM’s renewed attempt to establish a foothold in West Bengal after failing to win any seats in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, there are other facets as well
Congress leaders are questioning the rationale behind the alliance and so are members of the ruling TMC. BJP leaders have also criticised the move, accusing the two leaders of divisive politics and alleging that the alliance would harm community interests, analysts point to the benefit the saffron party may accrue due to this get-together.
The argument is based on simple arithmetic — the AIMIM-AJUP partnership is expected to split the anti-BJP votes, affecting the TMC and the Left-Congress bloc. Muslims constitute roughly 27-30% of West Bengal’s electorate, and form a crucial support base for the TMC, Even a modest shift of minority votes has the potential to influence outcomes in closely contested seats and multi-angle contests. Owaisi’s presence can also trigger counter-polarisation, consolidating Hindu votes in favour of the BJP in certain constituencies.
At the same time, they also point to the danger of overestimating this impact, saying that “voters are smart enough to understand the aim of this alliance.” Besides TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s strong ground presence will not allow the repeat of what happened in the Bihar Assembly elections
In both 2020 and 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the AIMIM significantly harmed the RJD-Congress and their Mahagathbandhan alliance by splitting their traditional “Muslim-Yadav” vote bank. In several constituencies, its vote share is said to have been more than the margin of victory between the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan, contributing to the losses.
Owaisi has consistently rejected allegations that his party acts as “B team” for the BJP, stating that AIMIM seeks to provide an independent political voice for Muslims and Other Backward Classes. But as West Bengal heads toward a high-stakes election, the electoral impact of the new venture will be watched closely.