SIR has been a surgical strike on the electorate: Poll expert
The Statesman | 9 May 2026
The heavy mandate by the electorate for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal has been a resultant of many factors combined together and only one or two issues, feel political pundits. While the absolute majority has made the BJP claim victory on its own, factors like the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) or the polarisation on religious lines, the anti-incumbency have all played their part, feel the experts.
Sociologist Debadyuti Karmakar of Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis Mahavidyalaya at Baranagar feels even if religious polarisation has been an issue, it cannot be a substantial one and the minority votes have also contributed to the BJP’s victory. “Though people were well aware which party catered to which religion, but is not the only factor for BJP’s huge majority. People vote with long-term prospects in mind vis-s-vis their present social and financial condition. They judge who can generate better income opportunities for them, rising above the rising above the concept of welfare state. People identified the winning party with a nation state, which ensures stopping infiltration and gives long-term social security,” said the Assistant Professor, adding, “The electorate had pent-up frustration.”
Another poll expert feels the silent voters have made the difference in this election. “We saw there was lot of silence amongst the public about their political preferences, which is a sign of anti-incumbency factor, feels Dr Ambar Kumar Ghosh.
He points out the marginal difference in vote share between the two major parties, the Trinamul Congress and the BJP. “The vote share per cent is only 4-5 per cent. The BJP has captured the 3-4 of the TMC’s vote share (who were its traditional voters). That also explains how at many seats, winners have been decided by a very small margin. Of course, the SIR has played its role here, but it not the only factor contributing to the results,” said the Non-Resident Fellow, European Partnership for Democracy, Brussels.
Prof Asis Mistry of Calcutta University believes it is SIR, which played a major role in the verdict of the election and that this was a well-planned approach of the BJP. “The SIR has been a surgical strike on the electorate. There has been a consolidation of Hindu votes. But it becomes potent if you link it with the number of deletions in individual constituencies. On paper, it is only 7 per cent swing for BJP from 38 per cent earlier to present 45-odd per cent and for TMC, it is a drop from 48-odd per cent earlier to 40-odd per cent now,” said the professor.
The analyst adds that the TMC has failed to handle the OBC issue, which led to cracks in its minority vote bank. Many of them voted for Congress, he said.